After a challenging finish to 2024–25 under El Niño and an unusually prolonged summer, meaningful rainfall didn’t arrive until June. While the recent downpour has brought welcome relief—recharging tanks and topping up soil moisture—it hasn’t erased the pressures from earlier in the year.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), we’ve now moved into a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. There’s a 30–35% chance of La Niña forming later this year, but for now, there’s no strong signal toward a wetter or drier season. The Indian Ocean Dipole also remains neutral, meaning we’re not receiving the additional moisture often linked to its negative phase.
Many growers hoped for a break around Anzac Day that never arrived. That delay pushed seeding later and limited early-season ground preparation. The dry start also coincided with a key phase in vine physiology. Vines shift carbohydrates from leaves and canes into root systems to support winter dormancy – in stressed vines, this process may not work effectively.
As a result, growers could see uneven budburst or weaker canopies this spring. These conditions followed a high-stress end to the last growing season. Growers can expect variability across blocks—especially near headlands, trees, and lighter soils. This variation affects spray timing, nutrition decisions, and labour planning.
The dry finish to the 2024–25 season pushed many growers in the Adelaide Hills and Fleurieu Peninsula to the brink of water availability. Tanks and dams ran dry, carting services were stretched thin, and some properties experienced delivery delays of up to eight weeks. These challenges highlight the necessity for proactive water management.
Assessing and enhancing water infrastructure, such as increasing storage capacity and improving irrigation efficiency, are crucial steps to mitigate the risks of future shortages. Additionally, exploring alternative land uses for underperforming blocks, like converting to Super High-Density (SHD) olive production, can offer more sustainable and water-efficient options.
With the season likely to move quickly once conditions warm, winter remains a key period for getting ahead. Prioritise pruning, trellis repairs, vine training, and irrigation maintenance. In young or recently replanted blocks, this is also an ideal time to revisit training structure, reapply mulch, and shore up soil health with compost or nutrition programs.
Soil testing now can guide early-season fertiliser decisions and help balance nutrient availability before budburst. Laying this groundwork over winter ensures the vineyard is set up to respond efficiently when the growing season kicks off.
With no strong seasonal signal, adaptability will be key. Many growers are investing in efficient battery-powered tools like Felco and Pellenc to reduce reliance on fuel and increas labour efficiency. Others are taking a close look at vineyard performance across the board—making practical decisions about where to concentrate resources and where changes might be due. For vineyards under pressure, small shifts in winter planning can have a big impact in spring.
We may be in a neutral ENSO phase, but the memories of last season are still fresh. While we can’t control the weather, we can control how well prepared we are for whatever comes next.
If you’d like support reviewing your winter–spring strategy—from labour planning to irrigation or block conversion—get in touch.
Book a site visit or give us a call to discuss your seasonal priorities.